At 8 p.m. Sunday, Penn State will tune in to find out its March Madness fate in front of millions.
In the 2023-24 season, coach Carolyn Kieger’s bunch reached a recent high in wins with 19 and turned heads across the country with multiple weeks with AP Top 25 poll votes.
With Penn State sitting on the bubble, it’s up to the NCAA Tournament selection committee to review the Lady Lions’ resume and decide if it’s enough to earn them an at-large bid. Here’s a look at what is helping and hurting the blue and white’s resume.
What’s helping
At 19-12, Penn State has a NET ranking of 27. The committee has notoriously relied heavily on said rankings.
As part of the rankings, the Lady Lions boast a combined 10-0 record in Quadrant 3 and 4 play. Though Quad 3 and 4 wins aren’t going to boost anyone’s resume, losing them would, and Penn State hasn’t done that.
To add, they are 6-3 in Quadrant 2 play with key victories over Kansas and Maryland.
Another factor the committee is looking into is the absences of guards Ashley Owusu and Tay Valladay. Prior to Owusu’s team debut, the Lady Lions were 10-5 on the season and lost narrow contests to No. 3 USC and No. 15 Indiana.
Once Owusu started her Lady Lion career, Penn State went on to win six straight — including the 112-76 victory over the aforementioned Terrapins.
Michigan ultimately snapped that win streak upon the season-ending injury of Valladay and it may be taken into consideration come Sunday.
What’s hurting?
The biggest smear on Penn State’s resume is its failed February. In the month, the Lady Lions lost six in a row before ending the month with a win over Purdue.
The month kicked Kieger’s crew out of the AP Top 25 range and ultimately put the whole season in jeopardy.
While the squad remained a bubble team in ESPN’s bracketology, the losing stretch put a dent in Penn State’s resume. The losses ultimately dropped the team to a 3-9 record against Quad 1 teams.
The Lady Lions’ Quad 1 record has been an issue the whole season, with their most significant win coming against Nebraska.
With Nebraska slotting right in front of Penn State with a NET ranking of 26, the win helps but would have been a more significant boost had the Cornhuskers won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa.
Still, the win came on Jan. 21, during the Lady Lions’ healthy stretch. As much as the committee considers the absence of players as a means to help a team get in, it also reserves the right to use it against Penn State — given Valladay will not be returning.
Bubble watch
In the latest edition of ESPN’s Charlie Creme’s bracketology rankings, Penn State is the second of the “first four out” teams.
The “last four in” teams are Marquette, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Arizona, respectively. The first team out is Mississippi State.
Of the teams currently in, just Arizona and Texas A&M surpass Penn State in the strength-of-schedule battle at 12 and 44, respectively. The Lady Lions are at 58 and Mississippi State is at 45.
Mississippi State suffered a similar skid in February, losing five straight. With three Quad 3 losses smearing the Bulldogs’ resume, Penn State could jump them. Still, the Bulldogs took down No. 8 LSU, a substantial win for their resume.
The taller task comes with Arizona, as its resume stacks up similarly to Penn State’s, excluding the 12 spot in its strength-of-schedule ranking.
The Wildcats’ season ended with a 65-62 tournament loss to No. 3 USC. During the regular season, they lost both of their games to the Trojans as well, but went to double-overtime to fall 95-93 on Feb. 29.
Arizona also took down No. 4 Stanford 68-61 on Feb. 23.
The Lady Lions may not need to surpass Arizona, though. Vanderbilt is 3-5 in Quad 1 play and is ranked 60th in strength-of-schedule. Its season ended to Florida and its most significant win was a 68-53 Quad 2 victory over Iowa State on Nov. 24.
Playing in the SEC, the Commodores failed to collect significant wins since the early season victory, and it could be held against them.
With conference tournament season concluded, the Lady Lions are out of time to improve their resume and will have to wait until Sunday to find out their fate.
MORE BASKETBALL COVERAGE
Men's basketball dispatches Michigan in 1st round of Big Ten Tournament
Zach Hicks stepped to his right, crossed to his left and sank a 3-pointer in the face of his…
Submit a Letter to the Editor
If you're interested in submitting a Letter to the Editor, click here.
