Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load (2024)

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Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load (1)

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AIDS. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2024 Jun 12.

Published in final edited form as:

AIDS. 2023 Feb 1; 37(2): 333–339.

Published online 2022 Oct 21. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000003413

PMCID: PMC11167453

NIHMSID: NIHMS1992114

PMID: 36541644

Gambo G. Aliyu,1 Jonathan G. Lawton,2 Andrew B. Mitchell,3 Alash’le G. Abimiku,3,4 Tapdiyel Jelpe,5 Orji Bassey,5 David J. Riedel,3 Mahesh Swaminathan,5 Joy Chih-Wei Chang,6 Joshua R. DeVos,6 Hetal Patel,6 Man E. Charurat,3 and Kristen A. Stafford2,3, on behalf on the NAIIS Study Group

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Abstract

Background

HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) surveillance is an important tool to monitor threats to progress towards epidemic control. The characterization of HIVDR in Nigeria at the national level is needed to inform both clinical decisions and population-level HIV policy strategies. This study uses data obtained from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) to describe the prevalence and distribution of HIVDR in Nigeria.

Methods

NAIIS was a cross-sectional, population-based survey of households throughout Nigeria in 2018. NAIIS was designed to provide estimates of HIV prevalence and related health indicators from a nationally representative sample. The study population included participants aged 15–64 years who tested positive for HIV, had a viral load ≥1,000 copies/ml, and had available HIV drug-resistance genotypes. HIV isolates were genotyped to detect drug resistance mutations. Individual characteristics of study participants associated with HIVDR were identified using a weighted multivariable logistic regression model.

Results

Of 1355 respondents with available HIV genotypes, 293 (19%) had evidence of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) that conferred resistance to ≥1 antiretroviral drugs. The majority of DRMs observed conferred resistance to NNRTIs (17.6%) and NRTIs (11.2%). HIVDR was associated with being ART experienced, longer duration on ART, and lower CD4 count, but not sociodemographic characteristics.

Conclusions

The population level DRM prevalence in Nigeria was consistent with what would be expected in a mature HIV treatment landscape. The continued roll out of dolutegravir anchored regimens should mitigate the impact of NNRTI resistance on population viral load suppression and progress towards epidemic control.

INTRODUCTION

Despite the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria, the country has not achieved epidemic control [1]. Nigeria has one of the largest populations of people living with HIV in the world, with approximately 2.2 million cases and an HIV incidence rate exceeding all-cause mortality among people living with HIV [1,2]. Estimating the prevalence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is important in countries like Nigeria with a large population in need of ART, limited availability of genotypic surveillance, and limited second- and third-line treatment options [3].

HIVDR patterns in Nigeria are important to monitor as the nation moves forward with efforts to widen ART access. When Sub-Saharan African countries were predominantly using NNRTI-based first-line ART, the prevalence of HIVDR was shown to exceed 80% among individuals failing initial regimens [46] and increase over time with continued virologic failure [7,8]. Levels of pretreatment and transmitted HIVDR are also rising throughout sub-Saharan Africa [911]. In Nigeria, prior studies have reported drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in 50–99% of people failing first-line ART [1116]. Among Nigerians with recent HIV infections, HIVDR levels beyond 20% have been recorded [15]. The reported prevalence of DRMs associated with resistance to protease inhibitors (PIs) in Nigeria is especially concerning, as these mutations may reduce the efficacy of available second-line therapies [14,17,18].

Although prior assessments of HIVDR in clinical cohorts provide insight into the severity of this public health crisis in Nigeria, nationally representative estimates are needed to inform population-level treatment strategies. Identifying sociodemographic correlates of HIVDR among a representative sample of Nigeria will also be useful for targeting interventions such as viral load (VL) monitoring and HIV genotyping. In this study, we describe the prevalence and distribution of HIVDR among Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral loads using data from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) [2,19].

METHODS

Survey sampling and population

NAIIS was a cross-sectional survey of households throughout Nigeria conducted in 2018. The methodology of NAIIS has been previously described in detail [2,19]. Briefly, NAIIS was designed to provide estimates of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, VL suppression, and related health indicators from a nationally representative sample of the Nigerian population. The eligible survey population included members of targeted households who were aged 0–64 years and slept in the household the night before. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants.

Field and laboratory testing

NAIIS survey personnel administered field-based testing for HIV infection and CD4 count, as previously described [2]. Blood specimens were obtained from participants who tested positive for HIV and sent to laboratories, where HIV status was confirmed and incidence testing was performed using the HIV-1 Lag-Avidity Assay, which categorized infections as either recent or long-term [20]. Serological evidence of ARV use was also evaluated in specimens from people living with HIV at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. The assay was configured to detect first- and second-line ART according to the Nigeria national treatment guidelines, including efavirenz (NNRTI), nevirapine (NNRTI), atazanavir (PI), and lopinavir (PI) [21,22].

HIV genotyping

Stored plasma samples with a detectable VL ≥ 1,000 copies/ml were HIV-1 genotyped at the Institute of Human Virology Nigeria’s laboratory in Abuja and at the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Lagos using published methods [23]. Quality checks, confirmation of genotype findings, and drug resistance classification was provided by the HIVDR laboratory and the International Laboratory Branch, Division of Global HIV and TB at CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Statistical analysis

We conducted descriptive analyses on each covariate in the full sample and in subsets stratified by HIVDR status, noting missing or extreme values. We then determined crude associations between HIVDR status and each covariate of interest using bivariate logistic regression. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the adjusted odds of HIVDR associated with select covariates. Independent variables were considered for the multivariable model if they were independently associated with HIVDR at a significance threshold of p<0.02. We started with a saturated model, then removed covariates with the highest p-value one-by-one until each of the remaining model terms met a significance threshold of p<0.05. Descriptive statistics, HIVDR prevalence estimates, and regression analyses included survey weights to account for non-response. Absolute numbers are reported with associated weighted prevalence estimates. Statistical analyses were generated using SAS software (Version 9.4, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA).

Ethical considerations

Human subject review and approval for the NAIIS survey and secondary uses of the data were provided by the CDC Institutional Review Board (IRB), the University of Maryland Baltimore IRB, and the Nigerian National Health Research Ethics Committee (NHREC). Health facilities identified by the respondents were provided results for certain tests, including HIV status, HIV viral load, and CD4 count. Individuals who tested positive for HIV but were not on ART were offered linkage to care.

RESULTS

Demographic and virologic characteristics of the sample

We evaluated data from 1,355 adults with VL ≥1,000 copies/mL and successful viral genotypes. The sample was predominantly female (61%) and between the ages of 25 and 45 years (59%). Most were not aware of their HIV status (81%) nor on ART (86%). Of those who were on ART, 97% were taking an NNRTI and 3% were taking a PI. The majority of HIV infections were classified as long-term (98%). The most prevalent HIV subtypes overall were CRF02_AG (52.8%) and G (35.5%). Socio-demographic, clinical, and virological characteristics of the sample are summarized in Table 1. We observed missing covariate information for 6% of participants.

Table 1:

Sociodemographic, clinical, and virological characteristics of participants aged 15–64 with HIV and viral load ≥1,000 copies/ml, NAIIS 2018.

VariableTotal N=1,355 n (weighted %)No HIVDR N=1,062 n (weighted %)HIVDR N=293 n (weighted %)uOR (95% CI)aOR (95% CI)
Age (years)
15–24196 (14.7)156 (15.0)40 (13.3)Reference
25–34422 (30.2)338 (30.2)84 (30.3)1.3 (0.8 – 2.2)
35–44398 (28.6)303 (28.1)95 (30.7)1.4 (0.8 – 2.4)
45–54237 (18.3)185 (18.5)52 (17.3)1.1 (0.6 – 2.0)
55–64102 (8.3)80 (8.2)22 (8.4)1.4 (0.6 – 3.2)
Sex
Male445 (39.2)358 (40.6)87 (33.4)Reference
Female910 (60.8)704 (59.4)206 (66.6)1.3 (0.9 – 1.8)
Highest Education Level
Not completed primary196 (13.5)156 (13.9)40 (11.8)Reference
Primary380 (27.1)307 (27.7)73 (24.5)1.2 (0.7 – 2.1)
Secondary583 (43.4)461 (43.5)122 (43.0)1.3 (0.7 – 2.2)
Tertiary160 (12.2)117 (11.9)43 (13.3)1.5 (0.8 – 2.8)
Other35 (3.6)21 (3.0)14 (6.2)3.3 (1.4 – 7.7)
Missing1 (0.2)0 (0.0)1 (1.1)
Marital Status
Never married296 (23.4)228 (23.5)68 (22.7)Reference
Married or living together761 (56.2)609 (56.7)152 (54.3)1.1 (0.7 – 1.7)
Divorced or separated128 (8.7)102 (8.9)26 (8.1)1.1 (0.6 – 2.0)
Widowed165 (11.3)119 (10.6)46 (14.4)1.6 (1.0 – 2.8)
Missing
Number of Sexual Partners (Last 12 Months)
None448 (32.5)320 (30.0)128 (43.0)3.5 (2.0– 6.3)2.8 (1.5 – 5.2)
One724 (51.4)583 (51.9)141 (49.3)2.3 (1.3 – 4.1)1.9 (1.0 – 3.4)
Two or more173 (15.4)151 (17.4)22 (6.8)ReferenceReference
Missing
Geopolitical Zone
Northwest84 (10.0)62 (9.2)22 (13.2)2.4 (1.0 – 6.1)
Northeast186 (10.3)121 (9.2)65 (14.8)2.6 (1.2 – 5.7)
Northcentral207 (10.7)150 (9.8)57 (14.9)2.4 (1.1 – 5.3)
Southeast268 (17.0)215 (16.7)53 (18.5)1.7 (0.8 – 3.7)
South-south439 (34.4)361 (36.0)78 (27.5)1.3 (0.6 – 2.7)
Southwest171 (17.6)153 (19.1)18 (11.1)Reference
Knowledge of HIV Status1
Aware255 (16.7)84 (7.4)171 (56.3)17.3 (11.3 – 26.2)
Unaware1075 (81.4)957 (90.6)118 (42.1)Reference
Missing25 (1.9)21 (2.0)4 (1.6)
CD4 Count (cells/mm3)
Below 10081 (5.8)41 (3.3)40 (16.4)7.8 (4.1 – 14.7)3.4 (1.5 – 7.9)
100–199148 (11.0)105 (10.0)43 (15.1)2.7 (1.5 – 4.6)1.8 (1.0 – 3.3)
200–349324 (23.2)254 (23.0)70 (24.0)1.6 (1.0 – 2.5)1.6 (0.9 – 2.7)
350–500296 (22.1)240 (23.4)56 (16.6)1.0 (0.6 – 1.6)1.1 (0.6 – 1.8)
Above 500484 (36.3)407 (38.8)77 (25.9)ReferenceReference
Missing22 (1.6)15 (1.5)7 (1.9)
Viral Load (copies/ml)150,426144,741174,5821.0 (1.0 – 1.0)
Recency of Infection2Recent Infection37 (3.1)30 (3.3)7 (2.3)N/A
Long-term Infection1,318 (96.9)1,032 (96.7)286 (97.7)
Viral Subtype3CRF02_AG719 (52.8)578 (54.3)141 (46.1)Reference
G469 (35.5)353 (34.0)116 (41.7)1.5 (1.0 – 2.2)
A76 (5.5)59 (5.5)17 (5.8)
CRF06_cpx56 (4.1)42 (3.9)14 (5.0)
CRF09_cpx6 (0.4)5 (0.4)1 (0.2)
CRF11_cpx6 (0.4)6 (0.5)0 (0.0)
C5 (0.2)5 (0.3)0 (0.0)
Other A, G or AG-related recombinants5 (0.3)4 (0.3)1 (0.3)
B4 (0.2)3 (0.2)1 (0.3)
D3 (0.2)2 (0.1)1 (0.3)
F23 (0.1)3 (0.2)0 (0.0)
K1 (0.1)1 (0.1)0 (0.0)
CRF18_cpx1 (0.1)1 (0.2)0 (0.0)
ART Status4
On ART205 (13.2)49 (4.2)156 (51.3)24.9 (15.6 – 39.9)14.9 (8.4 – 26.6)
Not on ART1,107 (86.0)1,008 (94.8)137 (48.7)ReferenceReference
Missing5 (0.8)5 (1.0)0 (0)
NNRTI Detection*
On NNRTI197 (96.8)47 (94.8)150 (97.5)23.7 (14.5 – 38.7)
Not on NNRTI8 (3.2)2 (5.2)6 (2.5)Reference
PI Detection*
On PI8 (3.2)2 (5.2)6 (2.5)3.4 (0.5 – 234)
Not on PI197 (96.8)47 (94.8)150 (97.5)Reference
Duration on ART5*
Not on ART96 (50.1)30 (68.7)66 (43.6)ReferenceReference
< 12 months20 (9.2)7 (9.3)11 (6.1)51.1 (22.4 – 117.0)4.3 (1.5 – 11.8)
12–23 months4 (2.0)1 (1.0)3 (2.4)41.3 (4.1 – 419.1)3.1 (0.4 – 22.9)
≥ 24 months70 (32.4)9 (18.2)63 (40.6)6.3 (2.4 – 16.9)0.6 (0.2 – 1.6)
Missing15 (6.2)2 (2.7)13 (7.4)

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Variable frequencies and weighted column percentages are displayed unless otherwise noted. Odds ratios denote crude (uOR) and adjusted (aOR) associations between HIVDR and each covariate. Only complete-case observations with long-term infections (N=1,235) were included in logistic regression analyses. Statistically significant odds ratios are bolded.

1Combining self-report and ARV biomarker.

2Assessed via Limiting Antigen-Avidity enzyme immunoassays [19].

3Only majority HIV subtypes G and CRF02_AG were compared in regression analyses.

4Detection of efavirenz, lopinavir, atazanavir, and nevirapine in blood specimens at the time of sample collection [21].

5Self-reported.

*ART-related statistics were calculated among participants with serological evidence of ARVs at the time of sample collection.

HIVDR mutations

Among 1,355 HIV genotypes, 293 (19%) had evidence of DRMs to ≥1 ART class. We estimated a drug resistance prevalence (including pretreatment and acquired drug resistance) of 19.2% (286 of 1,318 long-term infections) and a transmitted drug resistance prevalence of 13.8% (7 of 37 recent infections) (Table 1).

The majority of observed DRMs were associated with resistance to NNRTIs (17.6%) and NRTIs (11.2%). K103N was the predominant NNRTI-associated DRM (11.3%) and M184V was the most common NRTI-associated mutation (9.2%) (Table 2). Among participants with NNRTI resistant infections, 53.4% were taking an NNRTI at the time of sample collection (data not shown). PI DRMs were detected in just 1% of respondents. The most frequent PI-associated DRM was M46I (0.5%) (Table 2).

Table 2:

HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations among participants aged 15–64 with HIV and viral load ≥1,000 copies/ml, NAIIS 2018

NRTI resistance mutations (N=1,355)NNRTI resistance mutations (N=1,355)PI resistance mutations (N=1,355)
Mutationn (weighted %)Mutationn (weighted %)Mutationn (weighted %)
Any NRTI181 (11.2)Any NNRTI274 (17.6)Any PI18 (1.0)
M41L38 (2.1)L100I8 (0.5)L24I5 (0.2)
K65R25 (1.3)K101E22 (1.1)M46I10 (0.5)
D67N19 (1.4)K101P4 (0.3)M46L4 (0.3)
D67G9 (0.4)K103N178 (11.3)I50V2 (0.1)
T69D4 (0.2)K103S8 (0.6)I50L2 (0.0)
K70R27 (1.6)V106M2 (0.2)F53L1 (0.1)
K70E7 (0.3)V106A13 (1.0)I54V5 (0.2)
L74V1 (0.1)Y181C50 (2.9)I54L1 (0.0)
L74I10 (0.6)Y181V4 (0.2)G73S1 (0.1)
V75M6 (0.3)Y188L9 (0.5)L76V3 (0.2)
F77L2 (0.1)Y188H2 (0.0)V82A3 (0.1)
Y115F8 (0.6)Y188C3 (0.1)V82F1 (0.0)
M184V152 (9.2)G190A53 (3.0)V82M4 (0.1)
M184I13 (0.8)G190S3 (0.1)N83D1 (0.0)
L210W8 (0.6)G190E1 (0.0)I84V2 (0.1)
T215Y26 (1.4)P225H28 (2.3)L90M1 (0.1)
T215F21 (1.3)M230L5 (0.3)
T215I3 (0.1)
T215S2 (0.1)
T215C1 (0.1)
T215E2 (0.2)
K219Q14 (0.6)
K219E16 (1.2)
K219N5 (0.3)
K219R2 (0.1)

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Frequency and weighted prevalence of specific HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among NAIIS participants aged 15–64 with viral load ≥ 1000 copies/ml.

Factors associated with HIV drug resistance

We examined individual factors associated with HIVDR in long-term infections. In unadjusted analyses, 51% of respondents with HIVDR had serological evidence of ARVs versus 4% among those without HIVDR (p<0.01). CD4 count was <100 cells/mm3 for 16% of those with HIVDR compared to 3% of those without. Viral subtype G was more likely to have ≥1 DRM than subtype CRF02_AG (p=0.04). HIVDR was also associated with NNRTI use (p<0.001), ART duration (p<0.001), knowledge of HIV status (p<0.001), and geopolitical zone (p=0.01) analyses (Table 1).

After multivariable adjustment, the odds of HIVDR were significantly higher for participants with CD4 counts <100 cells/mm3 (aOR: 3.44, 95% CI: 1.51 – 7.85) and between 100 to 200 cells/mm3 (aOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.02 – 3.34) compared to those with CD4 counts >500 cells/mm3. Being on ART (aOR: 14.9, 95% CI: 8.4 – 26.6) and taking ARVs for less than a year (aOR: 4.27, 95% CI: 1.54 – 11.8) were also associated with HIVDR after adjustment (aOR: 4.27, 95% CI: 1.54 – 11.8) (Table 1).

DISCUSSION

Nearly one in five virally unsuppressed Nigerian adults had a drug resistant HIV infection. However, our data indicate lower HIVDR rates compared to earlier studies, which showed that up to 99% of ART-experienced people failing first-line therapy had HIV DRMs [1116]. Prior studies were smaller and were not population-based, which may explain their higher HIVDR prevalence estimates. We also observed HIVDR in 14% of recent infections, which roughly coincides with a recent report of a 20.5% prevalence of TDR in men who have sex with men and transgender women [15].

NNRTI-resistant infections were the most common type of inhibitor-specific HIVDR in our sample, driven primarily by the K103N mutation. NRTI resistance was also common, led by the M184V mutation. The predominance of these two mutations is consistent with several previous reports in Nigeria [11,14,15], whereas other studies noted a stronger predominance of Y181C [13,16,18]. Although the prevalence of NNRTI DRMs in our sample supports the move to dolutegravir-based combinations as first-line ART in Nigeria, resistance to NRTIs may still threaten initial treatment regimens. DRMs conferring resistance to PIs were rare in our sample (1%). PI usage was uncommon in NAIIS, which may suggest a weak selective pressure for PI resistance. Earlier studies report varying levels of PI resistance in Nigeria, possibly due to significant heterogeneity in sample sizes and ART experience [14,17,18]. Two recent studies by Crowell et al. did not detect any PI-associated DRMs [11,15].

Despite low ART uptake overall, more than half of the people with HIVDR were taking ARVs at the time of sample collection. These people were considered to be failing treatment. Our observation is in agreement with canonical knowledge of HIVDR, as the most common scenarios that give rise to DRMs are poor adherence to treatment and maintenance of a failing ART regimen [7,9,10,24,25].

We acknowledge certain limitations in this study. It is challenging to accurately estimate acquired and transmitted drug resistance based on infection recency testing alone, since we cannot not definitively determine if long-term drug resistant infections were developed due to ART exposure or transmitted from another individual. Similarly, our ability to differentiate pre-treatment HIVDR was limited by the absence of complete ART history data due to non-disclosure of HIV status to survey staff. Serological evidence of ARV metabolites was assessed at the time of sampling for the NNRTI and PI inhibitors that comprised the most common first- and second-line treatment options in Nigeria. Respondents were not tested for presence of resistance to integrase inhibitors such as dolutegravir, as it was just beginning scale up in Nigeria. Future surveillance efforts should prioritize this gap, as a high prevalence of the integrase inhibitor-associated DRM L71I in Nigeria was recently reported prior to treatment [26].

Conclusion

Population level DRM prevalence in Nigeria was consistent with what would be expected in a mature HIV treatment landscape. The continued rollout of dolutegravir-based regimens may mitigate the impact of NNRTI resistance on population-level VL suppression. Routine care visits including VL monitoring for people living with HIV surveillance is recommended to preserve the efficacy of NRTIs and PIs.

Funding Statement

This project is supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the cooperative agreement #U2GGH002108 to the University of Maryland, Baltimore and by the Global Funds to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria through the National Agency for the Control of AIDS, Nigeria, under the contract # NGA-H-NACA to the University of Maryland, Baltimore.

Disclaimer

The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the funding agencies.

Footnotes

The NAIIS Study Group is constituted as follows:

The NAIIS Study Group includes Principal Investigators: Isaac Adewole (Federal Ministry of Health), Sani Aliyu (National Agency for the Control of AIDS), Osagie Ehanire (Federal Ministry of Health), Mahesh Swaminathan (CDC Nigeria), Megan Bronson (CDC Atlanta), Manhattan Charurat (University of Maryland, Baltimore); Co-Investigators: Evelyn Ngige, Sunday Aboje, Charles Nzelu, Emanuel Meribole, Chike Ihekweazu, Chukuma Anyaike, Kayode Ogungbemi, Mukhtar Muhammad, Gregory Ashefor, Ibrahim Dalhatu, Ibrahim Jahun, Victor Sebastian, Ahmed Mukhtar, Tapdiyel Jelpe, Orji Bassey, McPaul Okoye, Aminu Yakubu, Matthias Alagi, Stacie Greby, Bharat Parekh, Hetal Patel, Andrew Voetsch, Daniel B. Williams, Kristin Brown, Stephen McCracken, Anne McIntyre, Nibretie Workneh, Bryan Morris, Rex Gadama Mpazanje, Wondimagegnehu Alemu, Erasmus Morah, Gatien Ekanmian, Gambo Aliyu, Alash’le Abimiku, Bola Gobir, Mercy Niyang, Isiramen Olajide, Baffa Ibrahim, Stephen Ohakanu, Ryan Leo, Geoffrey Greenwell, Adedayo Adeyemi, Bamgboye Afolabi, Ekanem Ekanem, Mustapha Jamda, Annie Chen, Otse Ogorry, Aminu Suleiman, Kolapo Usman, Ojor R. Ayemoba, Adebobola Bashorun; Collaborating Institutions: Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH), National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), National Population Commission (NPopC), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Nigeria, CDC Atlanta, The Global Funds to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, University of Maryland Baltimore (UMB), ICF International, African Field Epidemiology Network, University of Washington, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

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Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load (2024)
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