College football is heading into a new era as the 12-team playoff format kicks off for the 2024 season. Today the College Football Playoff board of managers agreed to change the format of that 12-team playoff, and it should be a positive for Notre Dame.
The change is that instead of a 6+6 model that guaranteed automatic bids for the six highest ranked conference champions and six at large bids, the new format is a 5+7 model that only guarantees automatic bids for five teams.
With one more at large bid there is now one more possible spot for Notre Dame to earn since the Irish cannot earn an automatic bid as an independent.
The move is in response to the destruction of the Pac 12, which is now down to a Pac 2. That means the Power 5 is done and it's now a Power 4. The 5+7 model essentially gives automatic bids to the Power 4 conference winners and ensures one berth to a Group of 5 conference champion. There is the opportunity that a pair of Group of 5 champions are ranked higher than a Power 4 conference, but it's unlikely.
Notre Dame not only can't earn an automatic bid, it also can't have a bye in the first round. That has always been the case since the 12-team playoff expansion was adopted. The only change that impacts Notre Dame today is the extra at large spot.
Essentially, Notre Dame is all but guaranteed a playoff spot if it ranks in the Top 10 of the final College Football Playoff rankings, and in certain instances the Irish could get in while being ranked as low as No. 11, assuming there are at least four conference champs ranked ahead of them.
HOW THIS IMPACTS NOTRE DAME
As stated above, the basic impact for Notre Dame is that it adds one more at large opportunity, which matters to the Irish program because it can only earn an at large bid.
Notre Dame not being able to get a bye in the first round has been known, so that doesn't change. The reason for this is that as an independent, Notre Dame can't play in a conference title games. That means the Irish can't get a bye with 12 games over a conference champ with 13 games played, which is reasonable.
The compromise by Notre Dame is that their 13th game would be the first round of the playoff.
This is still a net positive for Notre Dame. As Notre Dame found out in 2020, playing in a conference title game can result in a loss, which would drop them out of the top four anyway.
Let's say that Notre Dame is good enough to have earned a top four seed based on their results, which would have been the case in both 2018 and 2020. Notre Dame still has a favorable path to the semi-finals.
Let's look at the 2018 College Football Playoff.
If you take the final rankings and project them to the conferences teams are playing in now the top four seeds would have been as follows, with their actual CFP ranking in parenthesis.
No. 1 - Alabama (1)
No. 2 - Clemson (2)
No. 3 - Ohio State (6)
No. 4 - UCF (8)
Those four teams would have received byes. Here is the first round matchups.
No. 5 Notre Dame (3) vs. No. 12 West Virginia (16)
No. 6 Oklahoma (4) vs. No. 11 LSU (11)
No. 7 Georgia (5) vs. No. 10 Florida (10)
No. 8 Michigan (7) vs. No. 9 Washington (9)
In this scenario, Notre Dame would miss out on a chance to earn a bye, but in the first round Notre Dame would host West Virginia, who ended the season ranked 16th in the CFP rankings. If Notre Dame wins that game it would then have played UCF in the quarterfinals. The Golden Knights would have finished ranked 8th in the final rankings.
If it was simply who is the highest ranked team, Notre Dame would have received a bye, but the Irish would have played the winner of the No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Penn State game. So instead of playing Georgia in the quarterfinals after a bye, the Irish would have to play two games against West Virginia and UCF.
That's a good thing for Notre Dame.
Let's look at the 2020 season.
No. 1 - Alabama (1)
No. 2 - Clemson (2)
No. 3 - Ohio State (3)
No. 4 - Cincinnati (8)
Those four teams would have received byes. Here is the first round matchups.
No. 5 Notre Dame (4) vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina (12)
No. 6 Texas A&M (5) vs. No. 11 Indiana (11)
No. 7 Oklahoma (6) vs. No. 10 Iowa State (10)
No. 8 Florida (7) vs. No. 9 Georgia (9)
If Notre Dame received a bye because it ranked in the Top 4 it would have played the winner of the Texas A&M vs. Indiana game, which likely would have been the Aggies, who finished the season 5th in CFP rankings.
Instead, Notre Dame would host No. 12 Coastal Carolina in the first round, and if they won that game they would then face No. 4. Cincinnati in the quarterfinals. The Bearcats ranked 8th in the final rankings.
Without the bye, Notre Dame would have played the 12th and 8th ranked teams in the first round and quarterfinals, respectively.
Once again, not having the bye creates an easier path to the quarterfinals for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame also gets to play their 13th game, which would be is first round game, which then eliminates the talking point about Notre Dame not having that 13th data point. If Notre Dame is truly good enough to compete for a title it should have no problem beating whoever is the 12th seed, and as shown above if Notre Dame was good enough to earn a bye in that type of format, it's second round game would be against another lower ranked opponent.
Plus, Notre Dame fans get the experience of hosting a College Football Playoff game. This is a good situation for Notre Dame.
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